Higher/Lower Week 11 Edition
This article will be going through some players that I am higher on and lower on than the Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) that can be found on the FantasyPros website. The ECR takes all the industry’s rankings and comes up with an average or consensus rank for them.
Quarterback
Higher than the Industry
Kirk Cousins (MIN) My Rank 10, ECR 17 Diff +7
Cousins has the best matchup on paper going against the Dallas Cowboys this weekend. The Cowboys are allowing 20.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Cousins has shown great chemistry with both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, and as long as he is throwing the ball, he will put up points. The worry is that he does not throw the ball much because Dalvin Cook runs all over this defense. However, if we go back to the Cowboy’s pre-bye matchup against the Steelers, we see their defense only allowed the Steelers to average 2.6 yards per attempt on the ground compared to the 6.9 yards per pass attempt they gave up. A big reason why their run defense is improving is that the Cowboys are getting healthier at linebacker. If the Cowboys can contain Cook and not let him run for 200 plus yards, there should be enough for Cousins to finish as a top 10 quarterback this week.
Honorable Mention:
Taysom Hill (NO): My Rank 15 ECR 23 Diff +8
Lower than the Industry
Tom Brady (TB) My rank 18, ECR 11 Diff -7
Tom Brady has one of the toughest matchups in all of football this week, going up against the Los Angeles Rams defense. The Rams are allowing the second-fewest points to the quarterback position at only 15.1 points per game. If you take out quarterbacks rushing yards, they become the defense giving up the least amount of points to quarterbacks. The Rams are so good in pass defense due to not having a weak spot in their cornerback unit. While everyone knows Jalen Ramsey is a lockdown corner, you may not have heard of Darious Williams and Troy Hill. Williams plays the opposite side of Ramsey on defense and has been playing just as well as Ramsey. Hill plays the slot and has been one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league. So despite having three great options at wide receiver for Brady, the Rams can counteract them with their cornerback unit. This is a defense you do not want to attack in fantasy football if you have other options.
Honorable Mentions:
Lamar Jackson (BAL): My Rank 14, ECR 5 Diff -9
Jared Goff (LAR): My Rank 24, ECR 20 Diff -4
Running Back
Higher than the Industry
Kallen Ballage (LAC) My Rank 13 ECR 18 Diff +5
At the start of this year, I would have never expected to be discussing Kallen Ballage as a fantasy asset for your fantasy team. However, we need to look at how well Ballage is playing in this offense. Ballage is averaging 4.2 yards per rushing attempt and 7.1 yards per reception. Melvin Gordon last year for the Chargers averaged 3.8 yards per rushing attempt and 7.0 yards per reception. If Ballage can keep up this efficiency, he will be a valuable asset even when Austin Ekeler comes back; he can become the Melvin Gordon of last year. Not only has Ballage been playing well, but he gets a great matchup this week against the New York Jets. The Jets are giving up 120 yards per game on the ground and an average of 20.6 points to running backs per game. The Chargers should be up in this game, which means they could rely on the running game even more, which boosts Ballage’s projections. If you are a fan of the #revengegame, this is a big one for Ballage going against the team that cut him earlier this year and the coach he has played for his whole career before joining the Chargers.
Honorable Mentions:
Giovanni Bernard (CIN): My Rank 12 ECR 20 Diff +8
Salvon Ahmed (MIA): My Rank 18 ECR 23 Diff +5
Lower than the Industry
Kareem Hunt (CLE) My Rank 19 ECR 13 Diff -6
The Eagles defense has not allowed a running back to top 100 yards on the ground this year; the only player to rush for more than 100 yards against them was Lamar Jackson. The best performance on the ground against the Eagles defense came Week 2 when Darrel Henderson ran for 81 yards and a touchdown, and half of those yards came on one big play. This defense is tough to run the ball against, so despite being apart of a team that wants to run the ball as much as possible, I expect a down week from Hunt; he may even be lowered more in my rankings by kickoff. We saw last week with Chubb back that Hunt can still produce for fantasy teams, but the workload was split more evenly last week, probably to ease Chubb back in. As Chubb gets healthier, the split will go more towards a 60-40 split in the backfield. In most weeks, that will be enough for Hunt to produce but against this defense, he will need to break a big play for a touchdown to produce, and he has not been breaking those plays this year.
Honorable Mentions:
Nick Chubb (CLE) My Rank 11 ECR 7 Diff -4
Todd Gurley III (ATL) My Rank 20 ECR 16 Diff -4
Joshua Kelley (LAC) My Rank 56 ECR 41 Diff -15
Wide Receiver
Higher than the Industry
Allen Lazard (GB) My Rank 47 ECR 64 Diff +17
Lazard will be making his return from his core injury this week against the Colts. Lazard should be resuming his role as the number 2 option in the Packer’s passing offense. While the matchup is not great, he can still be started as a WR4/Flex play. Before his injury, Lazard was playing very well, he saw at least four targets in each of the three games he played and averaged over 15 yards per reception in each of those games. Rodgers was pushing the ball downfield for him. With Adams dealing with a slight ankle injury, Lazard’s return can take some pressure off of Adams as Rodgers will have a second option to throw to consistently. The Colts are also vulnerable through the air giving up 214.9 yards per game through the air compared to only 90.1 on the ground. If the Packers want to move the ball, they will pass, which means Lazard will see the targets in his first game back from injury.
Honorable Mentions:
DJ Chark Jr (JAC) My Rank 20 ECR 25 Diff +5
Mike Williams (LAC) My Rank 28 ECR 35 Diff +7
Michael Pittman Jr (IND) My Rank 35 ECR 43 Diff +8
Willie Snead IV (BAL) My Rank 48 ECR 67 Diff +19
Lower than the Industry
Robbie Anderson (CAR) My rank 26 ECR 18 Diff -8
Since week 5, Robbie Anderson has not totaled more than 77 yards in a game. On top of that, he will be without his starting quarterback this week and will instead of PJ Walker throwing him the ball. While Walker has shown he can play in the XFL, we do not know how his play will translate to the NFL. Carolina will most likely lean on their running game this week with the backup quarterback, which takes targets away from Anderson. Detroit gives up the most fantasy points per game to running backs and is giving up 141 yards per game on the ground. With the matchup favoring the run game, the backup quarterback throwing the ball, and the recent dip in production, Anderson has dropped to a high-end WR3 in my rankings this week.
Honorable Mentions:
Michael Thomas (NO) My Rank 16 ECR 10 Diff -6
Mike Evans (TB) My Rank 31 ECR 26 Diff -5
DJ Moore (CAR) My Rank 32 ECR 23 Diff -9