Every week fantasy owners are faced with difficult start and sit decisions. Do I play a guy in a tough matchup? Do I start a role player in a good matchup? Should I trust players who have been disappointing every week or players who have been overperforming? This article will highlight some specific players who should be finding ways into your lineups and others who may be worth sitting or at least adjusting your expectations for. If you do have particular start sit questions, be sure to join us on Sunday Morning over on Twitch, answering any, and all start/sit questions you may have.
Week 5 Results: 7 hits (Carter, Toney, OBJ, Pitts, Fant, Cooks, Murray), five misses (Gaskin, Lance, Herbert, Heinicke, Bolden).
Start: Darrell Henderson vs. New York
Owners may be worried about Darrell Henderson after watching Sony Michel get double-digit touches in the Rams' last game. However, most of Michel's touches came while Henderson was getting checked out by trainers. The rest of the game was dominated by Henderson. This year, Darrel Henderson has been one of the most consistent running backs in fantasy and is set up to have an explosive game this week against the Giants. The Giants give up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs at 23.8 points per game. Henderson receives between 16 and 20 touches every game and is in an offense that can put up points. Henderson has averaged over 4 yards per carry, and with the number of touches he gets every week, the soft matchup with the Giants, and a positive game script, Henderson could be the overall RB1 this week.
Sit: Devontae Booker vs. Los Angeles
Opposite of Darrell Henderson in this matchup is Devontae Booker, who is stepping into a full-time role after Saquon Barkley injured his ankle. While it is challenging to sit any starting NFL running back right now, Booker would be one to temper your expectations for. Booker is a solid backup but will need to produce through the end and find the endzone to be truly valuable for your fantasy lineup this week. Los Angeles has not been dominant against the run but can shut down a running game, as seen by their 35 yards given up to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers earlier this year. Booker's main worry is the scoring potential for the Giants in this game; if the Giants do not put up points against the Rams, then Booker's touchdown potential is limited. This could cause him to disappoint any fantasy owners who picked him up to start this week.
Start: Taylor Heinicke vs. Kansas City
Heinicke has been a solid fantasy quarterback since coming in for the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. He had a streak of three straight top 12 weeks before a disappointing game last week against the Saints. However, Heinicke now gets an incredible bounce-back matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position, and the only team that gives up more is the Washington Football Team themselves. This leads to a potential shootout between these two high-powered offenses and horrible defenses. Heinicke will need to air out to keep up with Mahomes, which should lead to plenty of fantasy points for any owners looking to stream Heinicke this week. He has the potential to be a top-five quarterback this week.
Sit: Ryan Tannehill vs. Buffalo
This has been a rough year for Ryan Tannehill to start the season. He has not lived up to his previous highs for fantasy, and he has been missing his top weapons for multiple games this year. While Tannehill will have AJ Brown and Julio Jones back for this game, he still should find his way to the benches of fantasy owners (However, hold onto him for this week because he gets Kansas City next week). Tannehill has had multiple passing touchdowns in only one game this year and is not running as much this year, five or fewer attempts in every game and three or less in three out of the five games. On top of a down season for Tannehill, he is running into the toughest matchup for offense right now. The Buffalo Bills have been dominant against all opponents this year. They are giving up the least fantasy points to quarterbacks at only 13.9 points per game, including a matchup against Patrick Mahomes. Tannehill should be on benches this week with the tough matchup, lack of rushing, and struggling offense.
Start: Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Houston
Michael Pittman has been having a quietly good season this year for fantasy football and is nearing must start territory every week. Pittman has seen at least seven targets in every game since week one and has had 12 targets in two games. He has brought in six catches each of the past three weeks and finally found the end zone last week to meet the upside he has always had for fantasy lineups. Pittman is excellent because he gets a matchup against the Houston Texans this week, so the chance for a touchdown is very high again this week. Houston has been surprisingly effective moving the ball and scoring this year which should keep this game close, leading to more passing opportunities for the Colts. The volume of targets he receives provides the safe floor you want in your lineup, but his explosiveness and the matchup make him a must-start this week.
Sit: Adam Theilen vs. Carolina
Adam Theilen is seen as a safe fantasy option for teams at receiver; however, he has been struggling for owners in recent weeks and has another tough matchup this week. Theilen has had less than 50 receiving yards in four out of five games this year, and he saw a season-low in targets last week with only three. This week he draws a matchup with the Carolina Panthers, who give up the third-fewest fantasy points to receivers at only 17.5 per game. The game itself could be a low-scoring affair on both sides now the Christian McCaffery has been placed on IR, but even if there is scoring, Thielen needs a touchdown to provide wr2 value to your team. Thielen is a low-end WR3/Flex play with limited upside who may be better on your bench this week.
Start: Dan Arnold vs. Miami
Dan Arnold, my pick for breakout tight-end of the year, is on the steps of that breakout now that he is now on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Last week in his first full week with the Jags, Arnold saw eight targets. The tight-end position has been relied upon heavily throughout the whole year by Lawerence and the Jaguars. What adds more upside to Arnold is that Lavishka Shenault has moved to the outside following DJ Charks' injury. With Shenault on the outside, it opens up more over the middle and underneath targets for Arnold. The role is there for Arnold to be a top-five tight end every week, but this week, in particular, he gets the struggling Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins give up the tenth most fantasy points per game to the tight end position. This week, if Arnold brings in a touchdown, he will finish as a top-five TE with his volume.
Sit: Mike Gesicki vs. Jacksonville
Gesicki has worked his way back into fantasy owner's good graces after his week one goose egg. However, those targets and production have come from Jacoby Brissett. Tua is now back as the starter for Miami, and until we see if the targets stick for Gesicki with Tua, he is better left on fantasy benches this week.
Honorable Mentions:
Start Brandin Cooks vs. Indianapolis: After a few down weeks, Cooks is back in a good matchup; his volume will put him back on the WR2 radar this week.
Sit AJ Brown vs. Buffalo: Much of the argument for sitting Tannehill applies to AJ Brown. The matchup versus Buffalo is brutal, so the upside for Brown is lacking this week. Be sure to temper expectations in this matchup.
Start Joe Burrow vs. Detroit:
Burrow has been incredibly safe and consistent this year.
Detroit gives up big passing plays at a high rate.
Burrow and Chase have shown how deadly their deep connection can be.
Sit Derek Carr vs. Denver: Derek Carr has come back down to earth after starting the season scorching hot. Now he faces a very tough Denver defense, so the upside for Carr is lacking this week, and better streaming options can be found this week.
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