Search

Week 5 Start/Sit (The Rookie Fiesta)

Every week fantasy owners are faced with difficult start and sit decisions. Do I play a guy in a tough matchup? Do I start a role player in a good matchup? Should I trust players who have been disappointing every week or players who have been overperforming? This article will highlight some specific players who should be finding ways into your lineups and others who may be worth sitting or at least adjusting your expectations for. If you do have particular start sit questions, be sure to join us on Sunday Morning over on Twitch, answering any, and all start/sit questions you may have.


Week 4 Results: 12 hits on start/sit suggestions, two misses (A. Rodgers and M. Sanders)


Start: Michael Carter vs. Atlanta


Since week two, Michael Carter has been taking control over the Jets backfield. He has seen double-digit touches in every game and scored his first touchdown last week. His snap percentage has been slowly increasing, breaking the 50% mark last week. Carter looks to continue his momentum this week against the Atlanta Falcons over in London. The Falcons have given up at least 80 yards on the ground in every game this year and over 100 yards in three out of the four weeks. The Falcons give up catches to the running back position and have given up at least six catches to running backs in every game this year. Should Carter continue to see the double-digit touches, including targets, he has great potential to return rb2 value this week against the Atlanta Falcons.


Sit: Myles Gaskins vs. Tampa Bay


Gaskins was a player you could rely on a safe floor from each week, but that floor has come crashing down. Gaskins has only seen over ten rushing attempts once this year, and while he had seen at least five targets in every game, he ended with zero last week. On top of his declining role, Gaskins runs into the Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense. As discussed last week, this defense does not give up yardage on the ground. Gaskins's role in the offense is up in the air, and in such a tough matchup, he is an easy sit this week if you have alternatives.


Start: Trey Lance vs. Arizona


Trey Lance will be getting his first career NFL start this week, and he should also be started in all fantasy lineups. Lance provides elite athleticism on the ground and elite arm talent, which is a recipe for success when it comes to fantasy point potential. Last week in a half, Lance was able to show the potential he brings to fantasy lineups when he put up the 10th best QB week. Lance can escape the pocket on any play and run for yardage or find a receiver breaking deep for a long touchdown. He may be a bit inconsistent in the passing game while he adjusts to the NFL, but his talent will continue to shine on the field and will provide points for fantasy teams. Now that he is the starter and the game plan can be developed around him, this could be a massive game for the rookie. The potential that Murray brings on the other side of this matchup is the same ceiling the Lance can bring to fantasy rosters.


Sit: Justin Herbert vs. Cleveland


Justin Herbert has had a solid start to the season and has the potential to have a strong outing, but expectations should be tempered in a tough matchup versus the Browns. The Browns have allowed 250 or fewer passing yards in three out of four games; the only QB to break the 300-yard mark was Mahomes. The Browns have an elite defense, and with the Chargers' strong defense, this could be a slow, low-scoring game on both sides. Herbert will need a multi-touchdown game to break the top ten of quarterbacks, and there are better streaming options with better matchups if you can grab one.


Start: Kadarius Toney vs. Dallas


Toney got his first start last week due to the injury to Sterling Sheppard, and he was able to show the athleticism that made him a first-round pick in the NFL draft. Toney saw nine targets in his first start and turned them into six catches for 78 yards. Between Sheppard and Toney, the Giants' slot receiver has seen nine targets or more in three out of four games. Daniel Jones is relying on his slot receiver, and the matchup against Dallas is one to take advantage of this week. The Cowboys are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers at 30.3 points per game.

On top of that, Kenny Golladay will draw the matchup with breakout cornerback Trevon Diggs. This will allow Toney to be a reliable target threat across the middle and underneath, and he has the athleticism to take it to the house on any play. Toney is worth starting as a flex this week with an incredibly high ceiling due to volume, matchup, and raw athleticism.


Sit: Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Los Angeles


Beckham has seen targets since his return from injury, but last week we saw that the floor for OBJ is incredibly low even with the targets. OBJ could have had a huge game last week, but Mayfield missed him on multiple opportunities. This week we learned Mayfield is dealing with an injury in his non-throwing shoulder. Most likely, the Browns will limit Mayfield's passing volume and rely on the run game, which significantly hurts OBJ's value. On top of the lower passing volume, OBJ is facing one of the worst matchups for receivers. The Chargers are second best against the receiver position, giving up only 16.4 fantasy points per game. With the lower volume and tough matchup, OBJ is a desperation flex at best with an incredibly low floor and would better serve fantasy managers on the bench.


Start: Kyle Pitts vs. New York


Fantasy managers have been disappointed to start the year with Pitts' fantasy performance. He is a rookie, and the offense has been disappointing overall for the Falcons. Pitts is seeing the targets to make him an excellent option for fantasy, having seen six or more targets in three out of the four games this year. Cordarrelle Patterson has been taking away from Pitts breakout potential with his target volume and touchdown scoring. Those touchdowns will start to fall to Pitts as the weeks go on. This matchup is an excellent opportunity for Pitts to have his first great fantasy performance. The Jets will give up yards and points to the Falcons, and both Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage are out for this game opening up more opportunities in the passing game for Pitts. Pitts has the potential this week to show why the Falcons picked him at four overall in the draft and could finish as the TE1 this week.


Sit: Noah Fant vs. Pittsburg


Fant has been a solid back-end TE1 for fantasy teams, but if Drew Lock starts this week for Denver, he should be on fantasy benches. Fant and Lock have never had a great connection, and against a Steelers defense that is giving up 5.7 points per game to tight ends, it could be a rough day. Even if Bridgewater is the starter, owners may want to temper expectations this week for Fant. This will be one of the lower-scoring games of the week, and less scoring means less chance at touchdowns for Fant.


Honorable Mentions:


Start: Brandon Bolden vs. Houston: He will have the pass-catching role in the Patriots' offense against one of the worst defenses in football.


Sit: Latavius Murray vs. Indianapolis: The Colts are tough against the run, giving up only 14.3 points per game to running backs, and Murray is in a three-way committee.


Start: Taylor Heinicke vs. New Orleans: Heinicke has been a great streaming option since taking over for Fitzpatrick. He will sling the ball all over the field and has a great connection with Terry McLaurin.


Sit: Bradin Cooks vs. New Orleans: Cooks has been a solid WR for fantasy as the only option in the passing game for Houston. However, Belicheck has historically taken away a team's best option and has dominated rookie QBs. Mills will struggle against the Pats' defense, and Cooks will be the focus for the defense to shut down.

22 views0 comments