Higher/Lower Week 10 Edition
This article will be going through some players that I am higher on and lower on compared to the Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) that can be found on the FantasyPros website. The ECR takes the rankings of all the experts in the industry and comes up with an average or consensus rank for them. I will discuss why I am higher and lower on the players brought up.
Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) My rank 8, ECR 12 Diff +4
I am 4 spots higher than ECR on Big Ben; one possible reason for this is some experts have not ranked him high due to the COVID concerns. But if Big Ben plays, he has a great matchup versus the Bengals. With the weapons at his disposal, he should be able to take advantage of a weak pass defense and put up some big numbers. The Bengals are giving up 20.1 points on average to fantasy quarterbacks. I project Ben to have more than that this week.
Lamar Jackson (BAL) My rank 14 ECR 7 Diff -7
I have Jackson 7 spots lower than the consensus, and I am unsure why the industry has him ranked so high. Lamar has only put up 20 or more fantasy points 3 times this year. His rushing ability does provide him a floor, but his passing has been bad. On top of that, he is going against the Patriots this week. While New England is not the dominant defense they were last year, they still are giving up only 16.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, which is 4th best in the league. Plus Bellicheck is famous for taking away what a player does best. I expect him to make Lamar beat them through the air, and if he is off as he has been most of this season, it could be a rough day for Lamar. Does he still have crazy upside, yes but based on what he has been producing this season, I cannot rank him at his ceiling like the rest of the industry.
Running Backs
Ronald Jones (TB) My rank 12 ECR 24 Diff +12
The Tampa Bay backfield is a situation that is tough to figure out. Jones looked like he had the job wrapped up while Fournette was out, but then one fumble changed it all. I still believe Jones has the early-down role in this offense, and with a great matchup against Carolina this week, I think he can have a huge game. Jones has looked explosive and elusive as a runner when in space. He gets to run against a defense giving up 21.6 fantasy points to running backs per game. As long as Jones holds onto the ball, he will get most of the work on the ground and exploit this great matchup.
Mike Davis (CAR) My rank 18 ECR 11 Diff -7
Davis is back to being the featured back this week, with McCaffery most likely out with a shoulder injury. When McCaffery first went out to injury, Davis came in and looked great but he started to slow down in the last few weeks. In the three weeks before McCaffery coming back, Davis scored 10.5, 6.1, and 8.2 fantasy points in a half PPR league. He had been slowing down. Add on to Davis being less effective because he is going against a very strong run defense in Tampa. Tampa has shown the ability to limit players like McCaffery and Kamara. Also, Carolina has been getting Curtis Samuel more involved in the running game; Samuel’s increase in touches coincides with Davis’s decrease in efficiency. While he is still a good play this week, I cannot rank him as an RB1 like most of the industry, and I believe owners should temper their expectations for Davis’ fantasy output this week.
Wide Receiver
Corey Davis (TEN) My rank 32 ECR 42 Diff +10
Davis had a bad game last week with 0 catches, but I will believe that he bounces back this week despite the tough matchup. Going back to his previous two games before last week, Davis had seen ten targets in each of them. The Colts are an excellent, defense but the area where they are giving up the most fantasy points is to the wide receiver position. I expect Davis to see a more considerable amount of targets this week, and that volume should lead him to be a WR3 in fantasy.
Mike Evans (TB) My rank 34 ECR 18 Diff -16
Mike Evans’s fantasy output this season has been reliant on touchdowns. He has only had more than five receptions twice this year. While one of those performances was against the Panthers in week 2 (his opponent for this week), the Bucs had no Godwin that game. Now Godwin is back, and Antonio Brown is in the mix as well. In the games Godwin has played, Evans has seen 4, 4, 2, 2, and 6 targets. That six target game also came in a blowout loss where Tampa was throwing the ball exclusively. When Godwin is out there, Evans takes a back seat in this offense and becomes nothing more than a touchdown-dependent WR3. He still has a very high ceiling due to his touchdown potential, but I am not willing to rank him at that ceiling based on the volume of work he has seen recently.
Tight End
Mark Andrews (BAL) My rank 12 ECR 6 Diff -6
Andrews has been struggling this year. He has only had more than three catches in a game twice. Much of Andrews’s struggles can be traced to Lamar taking a step back as a passer this year. As Lamar’s favorite target, he should be used to get Lamar in more of a rhythm each game; however, with the Patriots being their opponent this week, I do not see that being much of an option for the Ravens. The Patriots are giving up the second-fewest points to the tight end position at only 4.4 per game. Last year, they could take away Andrews, limiting him to 2 catches on three targets for 21 yards. This could be another rough week for Andrews; he will need to score a touchdown to finish as a top 6 tight end like ECR has him ranked but based on his work in the passing game and the matchup, it is more likely that he struggles again this week.